This alert expired on 1 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 6th strongest of the 28 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 3 April 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 12 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 1 at 2:31PM EDT until July 1 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI
An estimated 76,117 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 3 April 2026
- June 16, 2026 · score 22 · 16.7 km
- July 9, 2026 · score 43 · 17.5 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 39 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 39 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 43.9576, -83.9400 |
| Nearest City | Bay City (41 km) |
| Population Exposed | 76.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-01T18:31:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3b96ed49d77bae360bfac5f68bfa6c39 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Arenac, MI; Bay, MI |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 1 at 2:31PM EDT until July 1 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI |
| Expires | 2026-07-01T14:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Gaylord MI |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3b96ed49d77bae360bfac5f68bfa6c39f5d6f5be.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0ed1e6bb6c72cf0f16e827abc278a70d707e3f31.002.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens in this area?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 39/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.